Bitwise: By 2026, ETFs will consume more than 100% of the new supply of bitcoin, ethereum, and Solana.

Bit Asset Management has released its 2026 outlook, with the most notable prediction being the potential emergence of a historic supply squeeze.

The company expects that next year, crypto ETFs listed in the United States will collectively purchase more than 100% of the newly issued BTC, ETH, and SOL—a milestone that would mark a new phase of institutional dominance in the digital asset space.

According toBitwise, demand dynamics have far surpassed the traditional four-year crypto cycle. ETF inflows, institutional approvals, and broad market access are now more important than halving models and speculative leverage.

The latest ETF fund flow data shows how this scenario might unfold.

Bitwise's Predictions for 2026

Bitwise roughly calculates as follows:

• New supply: 166,000 BTC
• 960,000 ETH
• 23 million SOL

But as more institutions gain eligibility to participate in 2026, ETF demand is expected to exceed these totals. Since the launch of ETFs in 2024, bitcoin funds alone have purchased 710,777 BTC, while only 363,047 BTC were newly mined during the same period—an early sign of supply-demand imbalance.

As major wealth management platforms such as Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Vanguard expand access to retail and institutional ETFs, Bitwise expects this consumption gap to widen.

Actual ETF fund flows illustrate why Bitwise is so confident.

Bitcoin ETFs remain the largest market force.

Despite market volatility, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs hold assets worth $114.28 billion (6.54% of bitcoin's market cap), with cumulative net inflows of $57.27 billion.

Even on down days like December 16—when inflows dropped by $277.09 million—trading volume exceeded $4.26 billion, indicating that institutional activity remains robust.

Scale: Bitcoin ETFs have generated inflows this year that exceed the entire supply of the network.

Ethereum ETF trends are similar.

U.S. Ethereum ETFs currently hold assets worth $18.17 billion, equivalent to 5.11% of Ethereum's market cap. Cumulative inflows stand at $12.64 billion, with daily trading volume at $1.17 billion.

Even after a daily outflow of $224.26 million on December 16, net accumulation remains strong—Bitwise expects this dynamic to accelerate as ETF access expands to more U.S. wealth management platforms.

Solana ETFs are the protagonists of an early growth story.

Although smaller in scale, Solana ETFs have quickly gained market recognition:

• Cumulative inflows of $714.92 million
• Total net assets of $926.33 million
• 1.28% of SOL's market cap is held by ETFs.

Daily trading volume remains positive, reaching +$3.64 million, with $39.53 million traded on December 16—a remarkable figure for a product launched less than a year ago.

The ETF debut of XRP adds another layer of significance.

XRP ETF has a more recent launch record:

• Daily inflows increased by $10.89 million
• Cumulative inflows of $1.12 billion

XRP is currently trading near $1.88, with several consecutive days of inflows, indicating that retail investors and advisors are steadily adopting XRP and integrating it into diversified crypto portfolios.

These flow patterns collectively support Bitwise's argument: ETF demand is strong, persistent, and expanding across multiple assets.

Why 2026 Could Be a Turning Point

Bitwise has listed several drivers behind its predictions:

• Institutional investors entering the market—institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are now beginning to open access to crypto ETFs.
• Regulatory shifts supporting crypto, including bipartisan support for digital asset transparency.
• Growing demand for tokenized assets, stablecoins, and on-chain financial products.
• Bitwise believes that declining volatility reflects “reduced risk of bitcoin as an investable asset.”

The company also expects that next year, crypto-related stocks will outperform tech stocks, on-chain treasury assets under management will double, Polymarket's open interest will hit a new high, and Ivy League endowments will accelerate their allocation to crypto.

Market Impact of Bitwise's Predictions

If ETFs absorb more than 100% of the newly issued BTC, ETH, and SOL, the supply side of cryptocurrencies will face structural constraints.

This situation is similar to traditional commodity markets, where financial instruments consume more supply than mining companies can produce.

For cryptocurrencies, this dynamic would put upward pressure on prices—especially as global ETF access channels continue to expand.

Final Thoughts

• The ETF accumulation of BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP has already demonstrated Bitwise's forecast of structural demand trends for 2026.
• If ETFs consume more than 100% of new supply next year, the long-term price floor for cryptocurrencies could rise significantly.