Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Hits $126K—Is This the Cycle’s Ultimate Top or Just the Start of Bigger Gains by 2026?

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) has long been a vital indicator of economic conditions, and its September 2025 release

highlights ongoing growth in manufacturing. This information has reignited discussions among market experts about the direction of Bitcoin’s current bull run, which is typically shaped by a four-year cycle linked to halving events. Although the last Bitcoin halving was in April 2023, recent trends in the market hint that this cycle could last longer than usual, breaking with previous patterns.

Historically, Bitcoin’s price has followed a familiar cycle: a year of accumulation before the halving, a peak roughly 18 months after, and then a correction lasting about half a year. By this pattern, the peak would be expected around October or November 2025. Yet, Bitcoin’s record high of $126,300 on October 6, as reported by MarketScreener, has left both investors and analysts debating whether this was the top or if further gains are ahead. Crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto believes that Bitcoin’s lagging reaction to gold’s recent rally—which often precedes Bitcoin surges—could mean the current cycle will be extended, according to BitcoinSistemi. Coin Edition notes that gold, which has recently climbed to align with global M2 money supply, typically leads Bitcoin’s moves by about 80 days, suggesting Bitcoin could break out as soon as late December 2025.

The ISM PMI’s signal of persistent economic growth, as detailed in ISM PMI reports, adds further complexity to the outlook. Robust manufacturing often goes hand in hand with a greater appetite for risk, potentially extending Bitcoin’s bullish phase as investors look for higher returns. This fits with previous cycles where Bitcoin tends to trail behind broader economic signals but then accelerates as the cycle matures, according to MarketScreener. However, Coin Edition points out that the correlation between

and global M2 money supply has weakened recently, bringing new doubts. Experts caution that if liquidity dries up or gold loses momentum, Bitcoin’s rally could falter, possibly delaying the peak until early 2026.

There is no shortage of bold forecasts. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee told Yahoo Finance that Bitcoin could hit $1.6–$2 million if it reaches gold’s total market value, while Michael Saylor projected a $21 million target within 21 years in the same report. These predictions depend on Bitcoin becoming a widely accepted store of value and continued institutional interest. Critics, however, argue that such valuations would require extraordinary changes in the global financial system, noting that Bitcoin’s 660% rise since November 2022 is modest compared to previous cycles’ 9,645% surges, as MarketScreener observed.

Currently, the market appears to be in a late accumulation stage, with major holders (the so-called "Dolphin cohort") now possessing 26% of all Bitcoin, according to Benzinga. On-chain metrics point to short-term price swings but strong long-term prospects, a trend also noted by Benzinga. As the ISM PMI and gold’s performance continue to influence the broader economic narrative, Bitcoin’s next significant move will likely depend on whether liquidity remains plentiful and gold maintains its upward momentum. In the meantime, investors are preparing for a season of speculation, with the potential for either a final explosive rally or a significant correction on the horizon.