The dominant force in this cycle's market comes from institutions.
The four major mainstream coins—BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB—have all reached new highs, but only BTC and BNB continued to rise by over 40% after breaking historical highs. SOL broke through at the beginning of the year with the help of the Trump token issuance event, and ETH achieved a revaluation in the middle of the year driven by DAT buying, but neither has continued to reach new highs.
Last night, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. How much further can this institution-led market go?
1. Institutional Allocation Logic of the Three Major Coins
The positioning of crypto assets directly determines their long-term value, and different positions correspond to different institutional allocation logics.
Bitcoin: The Anti-Inflation Attribute of Digital Gold
Positioned as "Digital Gold," its long-term logic is strongly tied to the fiat currency inflation cycle. Data shows its market cap growth is synchronized with Global M2 and negatively correlated with the US Dollar Index. Its core value lies in "anti-inflation + value preservation and appreciation," making it the fundamental target for institutional allocation.
Ethereum: Institutional Narrative Dividend of the World Computer
Positioned as the "World Computer," although the foundation's promoted "Layer2 scaling" narrative has not been recognized by the capital market, Ethereum has, with its 10 years of zero downtime and stable system, captured the development opportunities of USD stablecoins, RWA, tokenization of US stocks, and other institutional narratives. It has thus shaken off the impact of the collapse of the Web3 narrative, and with the key push from DAT, achieved a market cap revaluation. Ethereum, with its stability and security, will become the settlement network for institutional-grade applications.
Solana: The Activity Advantage of the Internet Capital Markets
Positioned as "Internet Capital Markets" (ICM), which refers to the on-chain asset issuance, trading, and clearing system. After the FTX collapse crisis, Solana achieved a "rebirth from death." Since the beginning of the year, it has accounted for 46% of on-chain trading volume, with daily active users consistently exceeding 3 million, making it the most active blockchain network at present. Solana, with its superior performance and high liquidity, will support the crypto-native on-chain trading ecosystem.
Their positions are vastly different, so the institutional allocation logic also differs. Traditional financial institutions first understand the value of Bitcoin, then consider developing their institutional business based on Ethereum, and finally may recognize the value of on-chain trading. This is a typical path: doubt, understand, become.
2. Institutional Holdings of the Three Major Coins Show Gradient Differences
Institutional holding data for BTC, ETH, and SOL shows clear gradient differences, reflecting the degree and pace at which institutions recognize these three projects.
Table: IOBC Capital
From the comparison, we can see: the institutional holdings as a percentage of circulating supply for BTC and ETH are > 18%; for SOL, it is currently only 9.5%, indicating potential room for growth.
3. SOL DAT: New Trends in Crypto Concept Stocks
In the past month or so, 18 SOL DAT companies have successively emerged, directly pushing SOL up by over 50% from its August low.
Notable SOL DAT companies:
Table: IOBC Capital
Among the existing SOL DAT companies, Forward Industries, led by Multicoin Capital founder Kyle Samani, may become the leader of SOL DAT.
Unlike the simple coin-hoarding of BTC DAT, many SOL DAT companies build their own Solana Validators, making this not just a "NAV game." Instead of simply waiting for token appreciation, they continuously generate cash flow through validator operations. This strategy is equivalent to "hoarding coins + mining," aiming for both long-term and immediate gains.
4. Crypto Concept Stocks: A Reflection of Capital Market Bets
Crypto concept stocks are a new bridge between traditional capital and the crypto market. The degree to which the traditional financial market recognizes various crypto businesses is also reflected in the stock price performance of crypto concept stocks.
Table: IOBC Capital
Reviewing the crypto concept stocks with outstanding gains in this round, two common characteristics can be seen:
1. Only heavy bets can achieve a revaluation. There are 189 listed companies holding BTC, but only 30 have holdings worth 70% of their stock market value, and only 12 hold more than 10,000 BTC—these 12 have seen considerable gains. ETH DAT listed companies show a similar pattern. A tentative DAT strategy can only trigger short-term stock price fluctuations and cannot substantially boost stock market value and liquidity.
2. Business synergy can amplify commercial value. Turning single-point businesses into multi-dimensional industrial chain layouts can amplify commercial value. For example, Robinhood, by deploying cryptocurrency trading, real-world asset trading (RRE), and participating in USDG stablecoin and other businesses, has formed a business closed loop for capital flow, with its stock price hitting new highs. In contrast, Trump Media, although it has also made significant crypto business deployments (holding BTC, applying for ETH ETF, issuing Trump, Melania, WLFI, and other tokens), lacks synergy between businesses, resulting in lukewarm market reactions to both its stock and tokens.
Conclusion
The project philosophies of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana respectively correspond to three human instincts when facing the future—survival, order, and liquidity.
