Exploring Why Bitcoin Could Be on the Brink of a Massive Surge

Key Points

• Bitcoin’s range formation coincides with falling exchange reserves, indicating a potential bullish trend.
• Large Bitcoin holders are not selling, suggesting that smart money doesn’t believe a market top is imminent.

Bitcoin [BTC] has been trading within a certain range for about ten days, a pattern that coincides with falling exchange reserves. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 74, indicating a sense of greed in the market.

Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoins

Bitcoin’s Dominance has experienced a slight pullback, but it continues to stay within its ascending channel. This suggests that altcoins’ recent outperformance might be a temporary phenomenon. Bitcoin remains the market leader, with a consistent rise in BTC.D observed over the past five days.

At the time of writing, the surge in call options, indicating a bullish directional bias, is one of many positive signals for Bitcoin bulls. Combined with evidence of whale accumulation, it seems plausible that another Bitcoin rally could be in the offing.

Signs of a Bullish Bitcoin Trend

Data showing the transfer of Bitcoin from large whales to exchanges indicates that on 17 May, holders with more than 10k Bitcoin accumulated 53.7k BTC. These large holders have seen negative BTC flows since August, a sign that smart money doesn’t believe the market has peaked yet.

Despite not being a bullish sign in the short term, it does suggest that the bullish trend still has room to grow. This idea is further supported by the falling exchange reserves, which have reached levels not seen since August 2018.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that short-sellers have been more cautious about going short in 2025 than they were during the 2021 rally. This is evident from the absence of significant long squeezes in recent months. This cautious behavior among risk-averse bears can be interpreted as a generally bullish signal.

User Shayan on CryptoQuant Insights noted that Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed the realized price of the 3-6 month holder cohort. As seen in October 2023 and October 2024, this reclaim typically precedes a strong rally. However, it’s worth noting that the retracement towards this realized price, currently at $98.8k, is likely to serve as dynamic support.