Bitcoin power law model predicts $200,000 by late 2025
Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO:BTC) recent rally to $95,000 has brought renewed attention to price models forecasting even higher targets by the end of 2025.
The “power law” model, which tracks Bitcoin’s long-term price growth based on network expansion, now projects a potential BTC price of $200,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
According to 21st Capital co-founder Sina, Bitcoin’s price has reclaimed its power-law trajectory, which is based on Metcalfe’s Law-suggesting value grows with the square of the number of users.
Sina’s Bitcoin Quantile Model outlines key targets of $130,000 and $163,000 before year-end, with $106,000 and $103,000 as interim milestones.
The model identifies the current market phase as a “Transition” range, where accumulation typically precedes a stronger rally.
Another analyst, known as apsk32, uses “power curve time contours” to compare Bitcoin’s current cycle with previous four-year cycles.
“Looking at two-year segments centered today, 4, 8, and 12 years ago. Price scaling performed using the power curve trendline. Expecting $200,000+ Bitcoin in Q4. Gold suggests we could go significantly higher,” the analyst noted, supporting the possibility of BTC reaching $200,000 in Q4 2025.
Historical data shows Bitcoin often lags gold’s price moves by 100-150 days, suggesting BTC could lead a new rally in the coming months if current trends persist.
The recent drop in the US Dollar Index (DXY) to a three-year low has also historically been bullish for Bitcoin, with analysts noting that previous DXY declines triggered parabolic BTC runs.
While some traders warn of short-term volatility and possible corrections, the prevailing sentiment among model-based analysts is that Bitcoin remains on track for significant gains, provided macroeconomic conditions and capital inflows remain supportive.
At the time of reporting, the Bitcoin price was $94,748.20.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
ECB shifts stance! Will interest rate hikes resume in 2026?
In the debate over "further tightening" versus "maintaining the status quo," divisions within the European Central Bank are becoming increasingly public. Investors have largely ruled out the possibility of the ECB cutting interest rates in 2026.
On the eve of Do Kwon's trial, $1.8 billion is being wagered on his sentence
Dead fundamentals, vibrant speculation.

Space Review|When the US Dollar Weakens and Liquidity Recovers: Cryptocurrency Market Trend Analysis and TRON Ecosystem Strategy
This article reviews the identification of macro turning points and the capital rotation patterns in the crypto market, and delves into specific allocation strategies and practical approaches for the TRON ecosystem during market cycles.

30-Year Wall Street Veteran: Lessons from Horse Racing, Poker, and Investment Legends That Inspired My Bitcoin Insights
What I focus on is not the price of bitcoin itself, but rather the position allocation of the group of people I am most familiar with—those who possess significant wealth, are well-educated, and have successfully achieved compounding returns on capital over decades.
