The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 50 bp in November is 52.8%

September 30, according to the CME “Fed Watch”: the probability that the Fed will cut 25 basis points in November is 47.2%, the probability of cutting rates by 50 basis points is 52.8%. The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 21.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 49.8%; the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 28.6%.