Oro: Precio actual (cotización en tiempo real de Oro en USD/onza)
1 onza de Oro hoy equivale a 4588.010 USD (-0.65%).
Precio actual de Oro (USD/Onza)
Gráfico del precio en tiempo real de Oro en USD/Onza (1 día)
Precio por peso de Oro
- Precio de Oro por Onza4588.01 undefined
- Precio de Oro por Gramo147.50 undefined
- Precio de Oro por Kilo147504.52 undefined
- Precio de Oro por Tola1719.95 undefined
- Precio de Oro por Tola (Pakistán)1843.83 undefined
Rendimiento del precio de Oro hoy
- Actual4588.01 undefined
- Alto4620.73 undefined
- Bajo4536.73 undefined
- Cambio-30.02 undefined
- % de cambio-0.65%
Oro price overview today
As of 2026-01-16 15:56 EST, the current price of Oro is 4588.01 USD per ounce, a change of -0.65% from the previous trading day's closing price. Today's high for Oro was 4620.73 USD; today's low for Oro was 4536.73 USD.
Based on the current price of Oro, you can buy 0.0218 ounces of Oro for 100 USD; 0.0436 ounces of Oro for 200 USD; 0.1090 ounces of Oro for 500 USD; 0.2180 ounces of Oro for 1000 USD; and 2.1796 ounces of Oro for 10,000 USD. This calculation does not include transaction fees.
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What caused today's Oro price fluctuations?
Las razones principales de las fluctuaciones del precio del oro hoy pueden resumirse de la siguiente manera:
1. Datos económicos más fuertes de lo esperado
Los últimos datos sobre el mercado laboral y la manufactura en EE. UU. han sido mejores que las estimaciones del consenso. Esta resistencia de la economía estadounidense ha llevado a los operadores a reducir sus apuestas sobre recortes agresivos de tipos de interés por parte de la Reserva Federal, ejerciendo una presión inmediata a la baja sobre activos no productivos como el oro.
2. Aumento de los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro y fortaleza del dólar estadounidense
La narrativa de «tipos más altos durante más tiempo» ha impulsado el rendimiento del bono del Tesoro a 10 años hacia arriba. Al mismo tiempo, el Índice del Dólar Estadounidense (DXY) ha mostrado una recuperación técnica. Dado que el oro se cotiza en dólares, un dólar más fuerte hace que el metal sea más caro para los compradores internacionales, lo que provoca volatilidad intradía y correcciones de precios.
3. Prima de riesgo geopolítico y demanda de activos refugio
Aunque los datos económicos presionan sobre el oro, las tensiones continuas en Europa del Este y Medio Oriente siguen proporcionando un «suelo de seguridad» para los precios. Los inversores permanecen cautelosos ante posibles escaladas, evitando una venta masiva y provocando rebotas del precio durante períodos de mayor incertidumbre.
4. Actividad de los bancos centrales y reequilibrio institucional
Informes indican una continua acumulación estratégica de oro por parte de varios bancos centrales de mercados emergentes. Sin embargo, tras el reciente repunte hasta niveles cercanos a máximos históricos, algunos fondos institucionales están realizando «ventas de beneficios» o reequilibrio de carteras. Esta lucha entre la compra a largo plazo por parte de instituciones y la venta táctica a corto plazo es un motor principal de la acción de precios irregular de hoy.
5. Resistencia técnica y señales de sobrecompra
Desde el punto de vista del análisis técnico, el oro alcanzó una zona crítica de resistencia. Indicadores como el Índice de Fuerza Relativa (RSI) han señalado recientemente condiciones de «sobrecompra». La fluctuación actual refleja una consolidación saludable mientras el mercado busca un nuevo nivel de soporte antes del próximo catalizador importante.
El análisis anterior es un resumen basado en las últimas dinámicas del mercado del oro y tiene carácter informativo, no constituye asesoramiento de inversión.
Historial del precio de Oro y variación anual (%)
2026 gold price forecast
These gold price forecasts for 2026 are based on market research reports from well-known international investment banks and institutions as of the end of 2025.
International institutions are generally optimistic about gold prices in 2026, with their predictions grounded in clear macroeconomic logic: an impending global interest rate cut cycle; unprecedented gold accumulation by central banks worldwide; persistently tight supply; elevated geopolitical risks; and continued growth in investment demand.
At present, a broad market consensus has emerged regarding gold prices. The rise in gold prices is not driven by "emotional fluctuations," but rather reflects a structural, global trend. Over the medium to long term, gold is expected to retain its safe-haven and wealth-preservation attributes, although short-term volatility may remain significant.
Comparison table of gold price forecasts by major institutions
Analysis of gold price trends by major institutions
World Bank
The gold price rally in 2025 was primarily driven by investment demand, supported by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic concerns, policy uncertainty, Federal Reserve easing, and a weakening dollar.
The World Bank projects that the average gold price will reach $3575 per ounce in 2026; however, the rally may end in 2027. The World Bank forecasts an average gold price of $3375 in 2027, representing a decline of more than 5% compared with 2026.
Bank of America (BofA)
Bank of America is optimistic about gold's medium- to long-term safe-haven attributes and believes gold may benefit from global economic turmoil. Its forecasting model is based on three key drivers: a reversal in the interest rate cycle, continued gold purchases by global central banks, and a widening supply–demand gap.
- 1) The Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle: This is considered the most important engine for price appreciation. Rate cuts lower Treasury yields, increasing the relative attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset.
- 2) Aggressive gold purchases by global central banks: This provides long-term support for gold prices. Global trade diversification and escalating geopolitical tensions have led countries to place greater emphasis on reserve asset stability, positioning gold as a strategic reserve asset. Central banks in emerging economies have stated their intention to continue increasing gold holdings.
- 3) Stagnant gold supply growth: Structural scarcity is emerging. Global gold mine production has remained near a plateau for several years, while demand continues to rise. Investment demand is strengthening, industrial gold use (such as in chips and electronic devices) is increasing, and central banks continue to accumulate gold. As a result, the supply–demand gap is widening, supporting higher prices.
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs' gold outlook is supported by several factors, including structural central bank demand and cyclical support from expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. As a result, Goldman Sachs recommends maintaining long-term gold holdings.
Structural central bank demand primarily reflects continued large-scale gold purchases by emerging market central banks as a hedge against geopolitical risks.
Cyclical support from declining U.S. interest rates is mainly reflected in increased diversification by private investors. In particular, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were net sellers of gold between 2022 and 2024, are now competing with central banks for limited gold reserves.
JPMorgan Chase
Global economic volatility and lower real interest rates will support a continued rise in gold prices.
Standard Chartered Bank
Standard Chartered believes that short-term volatility in the gold market may increase, but the long-term trend remains strong.
UBS
UBS analysts point out that a low-interest-rate environment and heightened geopolitical risks are key factors supporting gold prices.
Gold price review and outlook
What fluctuations have gold prices experienced over the past decade or so?
What has caused fluctuations in gold prices over the past decade or so?
- Federal Reserve rate-hike cycles (2015–2018, 2022–2025): Gold does not generate interest income. When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets such as bonds increases, while the opportunity cost of holding gold rises, putting downward pressure on gold prices.
- Quantitative easing and low interest rate environment (2019–2021): To cope with economic recessions (especially the COVID-19 pandemic), central banks worldwide implemented large-scale quantitative easing and ultra-low interest rate policies. These measures pushed real interest rates lower, and in some cases into negative territory, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and stimulating investment demand. This was a major driver behind gold prices reaching record highs in 2020.
- Interest rate cut expectations: Recent market expectations of future Federal Reserve rate cuts have reduced the relative attractiveness of the U.S. dollar, further supporting higher gold prices.
- Regional conflicts and trade tensions: The Russia–Ukraine conflict, tensions in the Middle East, and trade frictions between major global economies have all contributed to rising safe-haven demand, driving up gold prices.
- Economic uncertainty: Gold is seen as a reliable store of value during periods of economic uncertainty. For example, concerns about global economic stagnation at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered strong safe-haven buying of gold.
- Continued central bank purchases: To diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce overreliance on dollar assets—a trend often referred to as "de-dollarization"—central banks worldwide, particularly in emerging economies such as China, have steadily increased their gold holdings in recent years, providing solid long-term support for gold prices.
- U.S. dollar performance: Gold prices are typically negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar. Persistently high U.S. fiscal deficits and debt ceiling concerns have weakened confidence in the dollar, prompting both investors and central banks to increase their exposure to gold.
Why did gold prices surge by 70% in 2025, repeatedly breaking historical highs?
- Energy and sanctions crisis: The Venezuelan tanker blockade and subsequent disruptions to crude oil supply in the second half of the year triggered panic in commodity markets, leading to a massive influx of safe-haven capital into gold.
- Multiple friction points: In addition to ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, localized frictions in East Asia intensified in 2025. This kept global risk aversion, as reflected by the VIX index, at persistently high levels and pushed gold prices to repeatedly break through key psychological thresholds.
- Interest rate cuts take effect: With U.S. inflation fluctuating and economic growth slowing, the Federal Reserve implemented several unexpected interest rate cuts during 2025.
- Lower holding costs: Gold does not generate interest. When real interest rates fall significantly and the U.S. dollar index weakens, gold's attractiveness increases exponentially. In 2025, despite a rebound in the U.S. dollar, its dominant position in the global trading system was increasingly questioned, weakening its exclusivity as a reserve asset.
- BRICS reserve adjustments: Emerging market economies, led by BRICS nations, significantly increased the share of gold in their official reserves to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar system. This form of "rigid demand" provided a strong price floor for gold.
- Demand for financial independence: Faced with the West's frequent use of financial sanctions, central banks realized that gold is the only asset without "counterparty risk."
- Gold–silver ratio correction: With a surge in industrial demand for silver from the AI and photovoltaic sectors (2025 being a major year for AI infrastructure), the doubling of silver prices also drove a rebound in gold prices.
- 1. Unresolved risk aversion: The global geopolitical landscape in 2026—such as the aftermath of the Venezuelan blockade and ongoing tensions in the Middle East—remains highly uncertain. As long as localized conflicts persist, safe-haven demand for gold is likely to continue.
- 2. Downward interest rate trend: If the Federal Reserve continues cutting interest rates in 2026, the cost of holding gold will decline further, encouraging greater institutional allocation.
- 3. Sustained central bank buying: Gold reserve ratios at many central banks worldwide remain significantly lower than those in Europe and the United States, particularly in countries such as China and India. This long-term demand for "replenishment" will provide solid support for gold prices.
What is the expected performance of gold prices by 2030?
- Optimistic forecasts: Some Wall Street analysts predict that gold prices could reach or even exceed $10,000 per ounce by 2030. Other investment banks forecast that, driven by strong inflation and heightened geopolitical risks, gold prices could reach $7000 per ounce or even as high as $8900 per ounce.
- Moderate forecasts: Other projections are more moderate. For example, some international institutions expect gold prices to reach around $5500 per ounce by 2028, while certain bank research institutions forecast prices of approximately $6500 per ounce by 2030.
- Geopolitical uncertainty: Geopolitical tensions, including regional conflicts and strained international relations, are expected to continue driving safe-haven demand, supporting gold prices.
- Persistent inflation: If inflation remains elevated, gold is likely to become more attractive as a hedge against currency devaluation, driving up gold prices.
- Continued central bank gold purchases: Central banks worldwide—particularly in emerging markets—have continued to increase their gold holdings to diversify foreign exchange reserves. This trend is expected to persist, providing structural support for gold prices.
- Monetary policy: The future direction of central bank interest rate policy will have a direct impact on gold prices. If monetary policy remains loose, gold prices will benefit; conversely, if interest rates rise, gold prices will face pressure.
- De-dollarization trend: The global trend toward "de-dollarization" may enhance gold's appeal as a non-sovereign credit asset, further pushing up gold prices.
- Dollar credit concerns: Ongoing concerns about the U.S. dollar's creditworthiness and rising U.S. debt levels could weaken the dollar's status, thereby boosting gold prices.
- If the dollar rebounds, interest rates rise sharply, and the economic focus shifts toward a tightening cycle, gold may face downward pressure.
- Risks related to market sentiment, leverage, ETF redemptions, and significant price pullbacks remain.
- Long-term forecasts inherently carry wide margins of error. With several years remaining until 2030, any black-swan event—such as geopolitical shocks, economic crises, or major policy changes—could materially alter the outlook.
- Therefore, even if the overall trend for gold prices is upward, periods of high-level consolidation and significant volatility are still unavoidable, requiring careful consideration.
Preguntas frecuentes sobre el precio de Oro
¿Cuál es el precio actual del oro?
¿Llegará el oro a los $5,000 dólares la onza?
¿Por qué fluctúa el precio del oro?
¿Es el momento adecuado para comprar oro?
¿Cuánto valdrá el oro dentro de 5 años?
- $3,700–$4,300 dólares: posible si se mantienen las tendencias habituales del mercado y la demanda sostenida del oro como activo refugio.
- Hasta $5,000 dólares: si continúa la flexibilización monetaria y las compras del banco central se mantienen fuertes.
- $5,000–$7,000 dólares: posible si la demanda de los inversores se mantiene alta y las condiciones económicas siguen siendo relativamente estables.
- Más de $7,000 dólares: podría ocurrir con una inflación persistente, tasas de interés más bajas o inestabilidad geopolítica.