XRP Faces Crucial $2.50 Threshold as Economic Trends and ETF Expectations Intersect

XRP is under renewed selling pressure, with the price at risk of dropping another 10% as it struggles to maintain crucial support levels amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges and regulatory ambiguity. By late September 2025,

is trading around $2.75, having slipped beneath important resistance points at $2.95 and $3.10. Technical signals, such as the RSI and MACD histogram, continue to indicate a bearish trend, pointing to persistent downward momentum. The 200-day EMA at $2.59 is a key support, and a break below this could see prices fall further to the $2.40–$2.20 range. Coinglass on-chain data recorded $392,000 in inflows on September 23, but overall flows remain negative, highlighting weak accumulation. Experts warn that unless inflows strengthen or macro conditions improve, XRP is likely to remain under downward pressure in the short term XRP Price Outlook: What’s Causing the Decline? [ 1 ].

Chart analysis reveals a fractal pattern similar to Q1 2025, with XRP retesting the $2.65–$2.45 zone before a possible recovery. Glassnode’s Unrealized Price Distribution (URPD) shows a concentration of buyers between $2.45 and $2.55, indicating strong demand if prices revisit this area. However, a descending triangle on the daily chart suggests an 8–10% drop toward $2.50 is possible. Should XRP fall below $2.50, further losses toward $2.20 could erase gains made since June. The 20-day and 50-day EMAs at $2.95 now act as resistance, keeping sellers in control. Bearish momentum is reinforced by the RSI staying below 50 and a declining OBV XRP Price Outlook: What’s Causing the Decline? [ 1 ].

Broader economic factors, such as the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to inflation and the strong U.S. dollar, are adding to XRP’s downward movement. Although the Fed cut rates to 4.00–4.25% in late August, Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on inflation have limited any upside in the crypto sector. Joel Kruger from LMAX Group points out that investors are waiting for PCE inflation data and further statements from the Fed before increasing risk exposure.

and Ethereum’s recent weakness has also weighed on sentiment, with XRP echoing the broader crypto market downturn. Analysts believe that a change in macro conditions—such as a more dovish Fed or a weaker dollar—could spark a short-term rally, but for now, the trend remains negative XRP Price Outlook: What’s Causing the Decline? [ 1 ].

On-chain activity and reduced liquidity are adding to the uncertainty. Sistine Research notes that XRP is experiencing its tightest liquidity since November 2024, with order books compressed into a narrow band. This situation, combined with historical fractal patterns, increases the chance of a sharp move once liquidity is released. Pelin Ay’s review of 90-day spot taker CVD shows sellers are still in control, despite a brief period of buyer strength earlier in 2025. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury’s upcoming payment infrastructure update on September 30 has fueled speculation about XRP’s role in cross-border payments, but analysts stress that institutional adoption or regulatory clarity will be necessary for a sustained rally XRP Price Outlook: What’s Causing the Decline? [ 1 ].

Regulatory news and ETF launches could act as catalysts. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) launched with $38 million in volume on its first day, the highest organic volume for a 2025 ETF debut. This synthetic fund, structured under the 1940 Act, bypassed standard SEC approval but now faces competition from spot ETF applications by Grayscale, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton. If approved, these spot ETFs could offer institutional access to XRP and potentially boost demand. Franklin Templeton’s ETF review has been extended to November 14, while other applications are due for decisions in October. Analysts caution that optimism around ETFs may already be reflected in the price, increasing the risk of a “sell the news” reaction Spot XRP ETF Sees $38M in Largest 2025 ETF Launch [ 12 ].

XRP’s outlook depends on several critical factors. Technically, bulls need to defend the $2.83 level to avoid a slide toward $2.50, while a rebound to $3.10 would require sustained inflows. On the macro front, a dovish Fed or a weaker dollar could provide upside, and ETF approvals or regulatory clarity may serve as short-term drivers. On the other hand, continued bearish sentiment—driven by weak on-chain flows, unresolved macro risks, or delayed ETF decisions—could push XRP down to $2.20. Traders are closely watching the Treasury event on September 30 and the ETF decision timeline in October and November, as these will likely influence XRP’s near-term direction XRP Price Outlook: What’s Causing the Decline? [ 1 ].